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Strategy NO.10 2020 / 12

applications could reach 17 million metric tons by Currently, there are only 7,600 FCEVs on the road.
2030 and 63 million metric tons by 2050. Roughly 30,000 FCEVs could be sold. In addition,
with sufficient market demand, there could be
Road map to a hydrogen economy 50,000 material-handling FCEVs in the field.
The US needs to act quickly. It should (II) 2023 to 2025: Early scale-up
make further investment, reduce By 2025, large-scale hydrogen production is being
regulatory barriers, and implement developed, bringing the cost down and kicking off
public policies regarding research the scale-up of applications beyond early adopter
and development, to improve states. This requires clear regulatory guidelines
to coordinate market participants and attract
competitiveness and remain its investment. Policy incentives in early markets begin
global leadership. The road transitioning from direct support to scalable market-
map is organized into four based mechanisms.
In this phase, the first large-scale hydrogen
key phases: production facilities are built using water electrolysis
(I) 2020—2022: Immediate next steps from renewables, gas reforming with renewable
In the first two to three years, the aim is to natural gas (RNG), or carbon capture and storage
establish dependable and technology-neutral (CCS). With the larger scale, hydrogen-related
equipment, in particular vehicle fuel cell production
decarbonization goals in more states and at the and fueling station equipment, also scales up,
federal level, which will serve as a guide to specific enabling cost and performance improvements.
policy and regulatory actions, including updates to Medium- and heavy-duty fuel cell electric trucks and
codes and standards. Public incentives and standards new light-duty FCEV makes and models are brought
can bridge barriers to initial market launch, bring to market. Second-generation high-throughput
a wider range of mature hydrogen solutions to hydrogen fueling stations for medium- and heavy- 45
market, increase public awareness and acceptance, duty vehicles increase adoption and utilization in
and continue to pilot hydrogen use in other commercial fleets in early markets.
applications. Progress focuses on early commercially For building heating, early adopter states start
viable applications in early adopter markets, like blending hydrogen in small percentages into
the expansion of fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) gas distribution grids, driving at-scale hydrogen
forklifts nationwide and further deployment of both production. In transport, early adopter states build
light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles in California. on their existing fleet and pilot stations to increase
These early applications require a combination of coverage and capacity in the fueling infrastructure
incentives to reduce barriers to entry and market- for light-duty passenger vehicles. The next wave
facing mechanisms to enable scale. of states follows their lead and develops hydrogen
In this phase, mature applications, like forklifts, fueling infrastructure rollout plans. Medium- and
and applications close to breaking even, such as long-haul trucking infrastructure is deployed where
backup power solutions, scale up. In transport, there is known demand on highly frequented
early adopter states focus on developing fueling routes. In addition, the use of hydrogen fuel cells
infrastructure to support FCEV adoption and begin expands beyond newly constructed data centers and
to see second-generation products in passenger telecommunication towers to backup generation
vehicles and fueling stations. They stimulate demand for buildings. Existing hydrogen markets begin
growth, making it fit for the capacity and distribution to convert to low-carbon hydrogen sources as
levels of the existing hydrogen production facilities feedstock for industry.
in the transport industry. Pilots in other applications, At the end of 2025, total hydrogen demand could
such as blending in the gas grid, are pursued to reach 13 million metric tons across applications,
prepare for broader hydrogen adoption. and up to 150,000 light-, medium-, and heavy-duty
At the end of 2022, the US market for hydrogen FCEVs could be sold. In addition, there could be
across all segments could total 12 million metric 125,000 material handling FCEVs in the field.
tons, compared to about 11 million metric tons today. (III) 2026 to 2030: Diversification

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