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can be produced significantly more cheaply than
in most of Europe, North America or Japan. A new
report from PwC pushes for a new national hydrogen
strategy for South Africa and argues “given its
immense renewable energy potential, South Africa
could become an exporter of cost-effective green
hydrogen to the world”.
H owev er , theor eti cal potential s
will not always translate into the
actual build-out of green hydrogen
production. While sub-Saharan
Africa has strong solar and
wind resources, investment in
wind and solar power in the
r egion has been l ack ing.
Only 2% of global renewable yet economically viable without subsidies or a high
generatio n capacity in price on carbon. Capturing carbon dioxide and then
permanently storing it in underground geological
the past ten years was foundations is beset with legal and governance
installed in Africa, due to complexities – including liabilities if the captured
gases escape decades down the line.
exorbitant financing costs, Another challenge facing blue hydrogen is its 51
residual emissions. Upstream and process emissions
infrastructure limitations of natural gas add 25% to its emissions footprint,

and political challenges. meaning significant emissions are released even
before gas gets converted to hydrogen. The CCS
A global market for green hydrogen may provide process itself typically only captures 60–90% of
an additional incentive to develop these renewable emissions.
resources, but may not be enough to overcome the The net result is that blue hydrogen is definitely
underlying barriers. lower-carbon than gas (or coal) but far from zero
The other route for hydrogen exports from sub- carbon. This could limit its export potential. As
Saharan Africa is blue hydrogen, produced from re- countries and companies around the world adopt
formed natural gas combined with CCS. net-zero commitments, it is unclear whether they
The hope is that producing blue hydrogen will will be willing to import ‘lower-but-not-zero-carbon’
provide a lifeline to African gas-producing countries hydrogen – or how long that market will last once
such as Mozambique, Angola and Nigeria – as their the costs of fully zero-carbon green hydrogen start
resources would otherwise become stranded as the to plunge.
world shifts to a low-carbon pathway.
Blue hydrogen is expected to be cheaper than Market uncertainty
green hydrogen in the short term. However this cost Both green and blue hydrogen face large
advantage could be short-lived, as the costs of both uncertainties. The main question is whether and
the electrolysers and renewable power generation when the market for low-carbon hydrogen will
needed for green hydrogen are coming down actually materialise. There have been waves of
fast. BNEF expects green hydrogen to outcompete policy enthusiasm for hydrogen before, without
blue hydrogen on cost by 2030. achieving much of a breakthrough. During the
The CCS used for blue hydrogen production is last hype cycle on hydrogen in 2008, South Africa
an established technology, but it has not yet been published a national hydrogen strategy focused
widely deployed anywhere in the world and is not on transport and research. This time round there

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