Page 28 - 全球能源互联网资讯-第10期（12月）-英文

In-depth Analysis

in U.S. electricity demand. According to the U.S. 12%; and utility-scale solar installations performed
Energy Information Administration (EIA), demand strongly, bucking the trend by 9%.
fell by about 10% in April, then recovered slightly
before slowly falling again in August, down 1.6%
to 5.3%. The September Short-Term Energy
Outlook published by the U.S. Energy Information
Administration gives a forecast that electricity use Wood Mackenzie has
will decline by 2.4% in 2020 compared to 2019, raised its estimate of
commercial electricity demand will decline by solar installations to 18 GW
6.5%, industrial demand will decline by 6.0%, and in 2020, representing an annual
residential demand will increase by 3.5%. Some of growth rate of 37%. Under the
the loss of commercial and industrial electricity assumption of a strong economic
demand will be offset by an increase in residential recovery, Wood Mackenzie
demand. expects the installations on the
The regional nature of this impact is more U.S. solar market to approach
pronounced because of the wide variation in the 100 GW in 2021-2025.
precautions taken by each state in the United States
in response to the pandemic. During the most
stringent period of lockdown, electricity demand
fell by 13-18% in many parts of the U.S. Electricity
demand was relatively stable in Florida, southern A higher share of renewable energy generation
MISO, the Northwest, and Texas, where peak demand The increase in the supply of new renewable
fell by only 1.6% in August. energy projects and the overall decrease in
26 As many small businesses close permanently electricity consumption have led to an increase in
and work from home becomes permanent, it is the proportion of electricity generated by renewable
doubtful that commercial electricity demand energy in 2020. Low global natural gas prices
will rebound. As the response to the pandemic is have led to the replacement of coal-fired power
regionalized, the rebound in electricity demand generation with natural gas-fired power generation.
will also reflect regional differences in economic The market share of renewable energy is expected
growth. Work from home may affect demand for to continue to increase as coal and nuclear power
housing in higher cost-of-living areas such as San plants are phased out due to their higher costs.
Francisco and New York, while benefit smaller According to the Energy Information Administration,
communities with lower cost-of-living. Household solar energy's market share in renewable energy
migration to suburban areas will have a limited generation is expected to reach 46% by 2050, up
impact on electricity distribution, but nationwide from the current 15%.
migration will have a larger impact. For example,
the rising proportion of work from home is causing Power companies struggle to cope
some businesses to choose to move from higher- Relatively stable employment numbers
cost states such as California to lower-cost states, Utility companies have been acting as partners
which will put operational pressure on some of the with the government, not only providing essential
higher-cost utility companies. daily services but also creating stable employment
Renewable energy projects have been delayed opportunities for people in local communities.
Measures to contain the spread of the pandemic During the pandemic, utility companies maintained
have had an impact on the construction of solar their total number of employees and their status as
projects. A study by the Solar Energy Industries the most stable industry sector for employment in
Association (SEIA) and consulting firm Wood the United States.
Mackenzie shows a 6% decline in solar installations Active coordination by industry associations
from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2020. Electric power companies have been actively
Residential solar project installations declined the coordinating with stakeholders such as electricity
most, reaching 23%; commercial installations fell consumers, government departments, and

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